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Prediction for CME (2025-11-04T22:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-04T22:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42418/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2, with a notably irregular diffuse leading edge. The source is an M1.7 flare from AR 14272 (N25E36) peaking at 2025-11-04T22:44Z observed in GOES SUVI 131. Also observed as field line breaking, dimming, and small post eruptive arcades in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304 with some loose filament ejecta in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T16:40Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-05 04:31
 - Time at C2: 2025-11-04 22:53
 - Radial speed: 639.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N29E36
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 597.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-07 16:40 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.80 hours)
Lead Time: 44.13 hour(s)
Difference: -11.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-11-05T08:40Z
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